The best NFL betting sites for the 2021 football season have emerged from the pack, following our extensive research to find the top online sportsbooks. You can safely bet on the NFL with any of these sites and enjoy competitive odds, fast payouts, and more.

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We apply a highly refined system to evaluate all of the online NFL football betting sites that are competing for your business. Since we are looking for nothing but the best, we will only approve sportsbooks that check off all the boxes.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints – NFC Divisional Round 2021 – NFL Playoffs – Game Preview – Prediction – Betting Trends – Free Picks The New Orleans Saints (12-4) are -3 favorites as they head into a showdown with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-5) in the NFC Divisional round of the 2020 NFL Playoffs on January 17, 2021 at 6. Moreover, before betting on teams, bettors also consider each team’s weaknesses and strengths. Equality Order In The NFL. One of the leading assumptions of the NFL is that any team can win. In the past, the NFL had only won six championships since 1967 whereas since the last 68 years, the NBA has been the champion for 33 times out of 51 NBA.

Any site that passes this test can be relied upon to provide a superior gambling experience.

For more on how we select the top NFL gambling sites, please keep reading. We’ve also explained some of the main benefits of betting on the NFL online, and provided details on the most popular wagering options that are available.

• Bovada – Best for casual football bettors, wide range of NFL wagers.
• MyBookie – Reliable betting site offering competitive NFL lines.
• BetOnline.ag – A safe site to bet on the NFL with fast payouts.
• BetNow – A top NFL betting site for US residents.
• SportsBetting.ag – Big NFL bonuses with competitive football odds.

Online NFL betting has become increasingly popular over the last few years. As a result, you can now bet on NFL football at almost any real money gambling site. However, this doesn’t mean that you just join the first site you find.

We’ve examined many online sportsbooks and bookmakers to compile our list of the best online betting sites for NFL, and there is a reason why our list is reasonably short. Quite simply, only a few sites meet our high standards in terms of the all-round package they provide.

If you want to bet on the NFL online, and have the best possible experience, then our recommendations are the way to go. Based on our extensive research, there are no better options for online NFL gambling.

How We Rank NFL Betting Sites

Let’s delve into some of the key criteria that’s important to us when choosing which NFL betting sites we recommend to our readers.

You are naturally going to take pause before you deposit your hard-earned money into an online sportsbook account. How do you know that you can trust the people behind the site? After all, anyone can put up a website, and there may or may not be any oversight to maintain legitimacy.

These concerns are totally valid, but you can set them aside when you stick to any NFL sports betting site that has earned a place on our list.

Though it can seem as though website operators exist in a gray area without any guidelines, this is not the case at all.

Major economic powers and smaller jurisdictions alike license and regulate the internet sports betting industry. Reputable licensing bodies go to great lengths to make sure that applicants are fully qualified before they issue permits, so it is wise to stick to sites that are licensed in these jurisdictions.

When we are putting our rankings together, we evaluate the licenses that are held by the contenders, and we consider reputational factors. Longevity is an element that we weigh heavily, and we visit forums that are frequented by serious players that share feedback about NFL betting sites.

The websites that we recommend are deeply invested because licensing fees and operational costs are considerable. They are in it for the long haul, and they take their responsibilities to their players very seriously.

The best online sportsbooks that highlight NFL betting make it easy for players to deposit funds into their accounts. Common methods include Visa, MasterCard, ACH transfers, wire transfers, and Bitcoin, just to name a handful. High rollers are welcome, and there are modest minimum deposit requirements.

With the exception of the credit cards, gift cards, and debit cards, the withdrawal methods are the same as the deposit options, and you can add in phone transfers, E-checks, and checks by mail.

If you have the need for speed when it comes to the transactions, you may want to use Bitcoin to fund your account. Deposits and withdrawals can be facilitated in a matter of minutes on some sites because there are no intermediaries, and payout processing will usually be free within certain frequency limits.

A site can act with integrity, and they may make it easy to facilitate transactions, but what about the customer experience? This is always going to be a resistance point for online businesses because consumers have to wonder if they will be able to get in touch with someone when they need help.

The NFL betting sites that have gotten our green light are sensitive to this dynamic. They provide top-notch customer service over the phone, through email, and via real-time chat. They offer wide windows of availability, and agents can resolve most issues quickly and efficiently.

Website design is another important element that we examined closely when we were compiling our list of the top NFL betting sites for 2021. The websites that you will visit if you follow our lead make it very easy for you to get around from the start.

There is no learning curve, and there is no confusion. This is key when you are going to be putting your cash on the line, especially when you are in a hurry to get your action in before you are shut out.

The site operators make huge investments in the infrastructure, and this includes high-tech, state-of-the-art encryption technology to keep sensitive information safe. Plus, while some circumstances cannot be controlled, you can play on these sites for years and never run into any downtime.

Now, these are just a few factors that we consider when ranking NFL gambling sites. There are many others that also influence how highly we rate sites. We won’t weigh you down in too much of the detail, though. Just rest assured that if you’re looking to bet on NFL football online, our recommendations are genuinely the best options around.

Many sports bettors in the US are confused by the current situation relating to the legalities of betting on sports online. This is not surprising, as things have changed regularly over the years and there’s still a distinct lack of clarity about exactly what’s legal and what’s not. It’s not illegal to place a bet on an NFL game through an online NFL betting site.

We won’t get into too much detail here, as you can read more about the whole situation in our page dedicated to the best US sports betting sites. What we will say, however, is that you don’t need to worry about the legality of placing wagers online. There are two different types of sites though, known as regulated and offshore. There is a lot of catch up for the regulated market to make in order to properly compete with the others.

The offshore sports betting sites have far more experience with online betting and are still regulated, just not in the US. Instead, they’re based outside the United States, but they operate legally and are licensed within their respective jurisdictions.

The top NFL betting websites offer a host of benefits for players to enjoy. If you have never placed sports bets online before, you will undoubtedly be quite impressed when you take the plunge for the first time.

Here are some of the main advantages of doing your NFL betting online.

Even if you are fortunate enough to have a brick-and-mortar sports betting parlor in your community, the convenience that is afforded by the online experience is off the chain.

Geography is simply not a factor because you can access NFL betting sites from anywhere, as long as there is an internet connection available.

You can make spur-of-the-moment decisions when you have your own sportsbook in your pocket wherever you may roam, and this is another advantage when you’re betting on the NFL. When it comes time to watch your action, you can hunker down at home or head down to the local sports bar and bet on NFL games as you see fit.

One of the best things about the safe and legitimate NFL betting sites is the bonus money that is offered. You get a sign-up bonus right off the bat, and it is typically tied to the amount of the initial deposit. Maximum welcome bonuses will typically be anywhere from $250 to $1000.

A lot of sites will offer an initial risk-free bet as an additional shot in the arm. The promotions that are offered on each respective site vary, but it is not uncommon to see reload bonuses as well to keep the free money coming for existing players.

Loyalty can be a good thing when it comes to business relationships, but it has its place. If you check out all of the NFL football betting sites that we recommend, you will see that there are different sign-up bonuses offered. To take full advantage of these opportunities, you could open accounts at all the sites to reap the rewards.

Bonuses for NFL online betting vary from season to season, and they’re something we monitor when updating our rankings. We’ve also provided some additional information about the best NFL betting bonuses for 2020 on our blog.

Back in the day on the well-trodden concrete of the Las Vegas Strip, grizzled denizens of the sports betting scene would go from property to property shopping for odds. They wanted to make sure that they got the most favorable numbers that were available for the plays that they wanted to make.

When you open accounts at several sites to snag the bonuses, you can easily visit all of them before you place your wagers. The odds can vary, so you will be sure that you are getting maximum value if you shop around for odds.

If you are going to be making NFL bets on a consistent basis, unless you don’t mind losing your shirt in the long run, you have to take bankroll management seriously. We are not going to get into strategy here, but you should wager within your limits and track your progress so that you know where you stand.

This can be difficult to do in the realm of brick-and-mortar sportsbooks when you are reaching into your pocket to place your bets in cash. The situation is entirely different when you bet online at the top NFL betting sites.

All of the info is stored in the cloud, so in a real sense, a free accounting feature is included when you open your account. This is useful in a general sense when you are evaluating your handicapping success, and the records are easily available if you ever have to discuss a transaction issue with a site.

You might also like to check out these top reasons to bet on the NFL online.

Online NFL Betting Options

There are a number of different types of wagers that can be made at the leading NFL websites that we have separated from the pack. You can keep it immediate and simple if you choose to do so, and on the other side of the spectrum, there are long-term and exotic betting possibilities.

The standard tried-and-true NFL football bet is the straight bet against the point spread. You can place these wagers at the NFL betting websites, and the standard odds are -110 on either side.

You have to lay this extra 10% as the vigorish. If you are not familiar with the term, the sportsbooks do not want to take gambles, and they have to make money somehow. If an equal number of bets are taken on each side at -110, they will make a profit regardless of the outcome.

This is interesting because a lot of people are under the impression that the bookies are trying to beat the players, but this is really not the case. All they want to do is balance the action and take equal wagers on both sides. Bettors are actually playing against other players that back the opposite side.

Another type of bet that you can make on sides to win games is the moneyline wager. With this type of action, you have to pick the winner outright. This sounds easy enough, but the odds complicate things.

Unlike the point spread bet with -110 odds on both sides, the talent differences are accounted for by the variations in the moneylines. To explain through a simple example, let’s say that the Lions are visiting Chicago, and the Bears are nine-point favorites.

There can be slight differences depending on site policies, but as a rule of thumb, the Bears would go off at odds of -400, and the return on Detroit would be +300. It is not a very appealing prospect to lay $400 to win $100, but some people are okay with the risk/reward equation.

On the other side of the coin, a moneyline bet on the plus-side can provide some extraordinary value at times if you can isolate a live dog.

The pro football betting websites post totals on all of the games. A total can be described as an estimate of the combined number of points that will be scored by both squads in a given contest. You can bet the over or the under, and the odds are balanced at -110 on either option.

The best NFL betting sites take a lot of parlay bets because many people want to put out a little to make a lot. A parlay is a wager with multiple different betting interests on the same ticket. The more teams on a parlay, the more you win if every single betting interest on your ticket is a winner.

To see the potential payouts for parlays with different numbers of teams, check out this page.

Another type of bet that involves putting multiple different plays on the same ticket is a teaser. The difference between a teaser and a parlay is the fact that you get additional points in your favor when you bet a teaser. The standard increments for teasers are 6, 6.5, 7, or 7.5 points.

You can tease sides, and you can tease totals at the online sportsbooks that offer this option. We also have a page on this website that explains how to bet teasers, complete with a payout chart, that you can check out to learn more.

A cousin to the teaser bet is the pleaser. It is based on the same concept since it is a multi-interest wager, but it works in the reverse manner. Instead of getting a more favorable betting line, you surrender points.

This means that a six-point favorite on a seven-point pleaser would become a 13-point chalk for the purposes of your bet.

It’s tough enough to pick a winner against the normal point spread, so this wager is quite difficult. That’s the bad news, but the good news is that the payouts are nice and juicy. For example, if you can hit a two-team pleaser, you get paid at odds of +600.

The internet sportsbooks post halftime lines on sides and totals for NFL games.

This is a complete reset starting out at zero to zero for the second half, regardless of the scoring that was done during the first half.

Every NFL football fan should make at least one futures bet every year. If you are not familiar with them, a futures bet is a wager on a team to win a title. There are odds to win division championships, conference crowns, and the Super Bowl.

You will be hard-pressed to find more value for a single bet because you have action for as long as your team stays in the hunt. There can be some pretty nice odds floated on promising teams that fly under the radar going into a season, and this is a potentially lucrative avenue that should be explored.

Proposition bets are offered on some NFL games at the top betting sites for 2021. These are wagers on certain “games within games.” For example, you may be able to bet on a particular running back gaining over or under a specified number of yards or the number of field goals kicked in a game.

These wagers add a dimension to your action, and a prop bet can keep you alive even if your primary wager on a side or total is not doing very well.

The culmination of the NFL season is of course when the Super Bowl is played. When it comes to proposition bets, there is a small phone book full of possibilities for the big game, and some of the propositions offered at the NFL betting sites are quite bizarre.

They have an over/under on the length of the performance of the national anthem, the color that will be worn by the halftime act, the number of commercials that will be shown, and many other oddball props.

It’s not uncommon to see promotions that are offered around Super Bowl Sunday, so it’s always one of the most exciting days of the year at any of these top Super Bowl betting sites.

Bet With Safe and Reputable NFL Online Sportsbooks

Betting on the National Football League is one of the simple pleasures of life for pigskin fans. It’s easy to become totally engrossed in a game that involves your favorite team, but even if you love the sport, it’s hard to get excited about other contests.

When you choose to bet on NFL football online, all of that changes.

For three hours, you get to enjoy a supreme entertainment experience as you watch the drama unfold with a monetary interest in the outcome. If you win, it’s great, but even if you come up short, you got some fantastic bang for your buck.

The trick to NFL gambling is that you have to be certain that you are placing wagers on a site that you can trust. When we were compiling our list of the top NFL betting sites for 2021, we applied exacting standards, and the ones that have been left standing get high marks across the board.

These online sportsbooks are proven to be safe and reputable. They make it very simple to deposit funds, and withdrawals are readily available. Turnaround times are surprisingly fast, and transactions can be consummated in minutes when Bitcoin is used as the funding source. They provide outstanding service, and they resolve issues in a timely manner.

As the icing on the cake, the best sites that offer online NFL betting provide hefty sign-up bonuses, and we are talking about hundreds of dollars, if not more.

Many sites will give you a risk-free bet to get you started, and the bonuses keep coming after the welcome premium because there are reload infusions.

A single introductory bonus is enticing enough, but you have the freedom to establish accounts at all of the online betting sites that have made our list. If you go this route, you can pocket multiple sign-up bonuses to take full advantage of this opportunity to rake in all the free cash that is there for the taking.

We have provided you with a pathway to the football betting sites that go the extra mile to provide a world-class gaming experience, and the next step is yours.

Go back to our NFL betting site rankings that we’ve gone through extensively, and get in on the action today.

During the NFL season, we keep our readers updated with our top picks of the week. However, just because Super Bowl 54 is behind us doesn’t mean we’re going to stop covering what’s going on across the league.

From following the future of Tom Brady to delivering detailed reporting of the 2021 NFL Draft, we keep you informed of all things pertinent to the National Football League on our blog. We cover pretty much anything and everything that can help you bet on NFL football successfully.

Here are some of our more recent posts, or you can see all our NFL blog content here.

Our experts’ selections for betting on NFL games and other markets can be found in our dedicated NFL betting picks section.

You can bet on the NFL online at any of our recommended betting sites. They all offer extensive wagering options for futures, props, and individual games.

Yes. The NFL betting sites we recommend are all operating legally in the jurisdictions they are based in.

Absolutely, so long as you use reputable and trustworthy NFL betting sites. The online sportsbooks we recommend provide the best online betting experience available and that includes ensuring your safety.

Every site is unique, but sometimes all it takes is making an initial real-money deposit. In most cases, your rewards will directly be correlated by how active you are placing wagers and how big or small you are betting. Some betting sites also offer NFL contests for additional bonuses and rewards.

Most sites set their minimum bet at either $1 or $2. While prop bets sometimes cap out at $500 or $1,000, you’ll find instances where sites will accept five- and six-figure bets. You can always reach out to customer service if you would like to bet larger than what is stated is permitted.

NFL betting sites are competing with one another for your business. That means certain operators are willing to “take a stance” more than others in hopes of capturing the public’s money on one side as opposed to the other.

The easiest option for this is to have active accounts at several of the top NFL betting sites. This allows you to easily shop around for the best odds for any given wager.

Yes. In today’s day an age, NFL live betting is becoming increasingly more popular and widespread. In turn, sportsbooks that want to remain competitive in this industry have had no choice but to offer in-playbetting.

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Depending on where you reside, yes. You’ll have to check our in-depth reviews for each particular NFL betting site to be sure.

The opening lines and the closing lines can sometimes differ greatly, so important to pay attention to all things considered. Typically, waiting until later in the week and as close to kickoff time as possible allows you to bet with the most pertinent information at your disposal.

It sure does. All you have to do is place your hard-earned dollars on the outcome of an NFL game that you will be watching on TV and you will find out just how captivating the experience is!

Handicapping is hard. You can use dozens of tricks and simple strategies to try to improve, and many of them are helpful. But if you want to figure out how to win consistently you have to put in the work. One way that some sports bettors try to reduce their long term work requirements is by building statistical models.

A sports betting statistical model basically takes information from past performances of players and teams and runs the information through an equation. This is usually done with the help of computers and programs, like a spreadsheet.

The upside to statistical modeling is if you can build a profitable model, you put a great deal of work into it up front, and then benefit from this work for a long time. You can benefit from the upfront work for as long as the model continues working.

On the other hand, sports betting is about more than statistics. Statistical models have a hard time factoring in important variables that aren’t easily translated to numbers. The two most common issues that come to mind that statistical models struggle with are weather and injuries.

You might think that an injury, especially one that keeps a player from playing, is easy to account for in a statistical model.

But it’s not, and here’s why.

The starting running back is injured and won’t play in the upcoming game for one of the teams in a game you’re handicapping. The first instinct of many bettors is to simply remove his expected contribution from the statistical model.

But he’s being replaced by a backup running back, or a combination of two or three other running backs. You might have some limited statistical information for the replacement players, but it’s almost impossible to predict exactly how good or bad the replacement or replacements will perform as the starter.

It’s easy to predict that the running back position won’t perform as well without the starter, but determining an accurate drop in production in actual numbers is basically impossible.

You also have to consider how the coaching game plan will change because of the injury. A team that has one of the best running backs in the league is likely to change the game plan when he isn’t playing. The reason he’s the starter is because he’s better than his replacement.

The reason I’m pointing out a few of the issues with statistical modeling isn’t to try to get you to avoid statistical modeling in the NFL. On the contrary, I believe that statistical modeling is a powerful way to handicap games in every sport.

The point that I’m trying to make sure you understand is that even with the best statistical model you have to spend some time looking at other things in every game you’re evaluating. Everyone wants to come up with an NFL betting system where they can simply plug a bunch of numbers into an equation and it spits out winning results. But this is an unrealistic goal.

The good news is that if you construct a good statistical model for NFL games you can use it over and over again and reduce the amount of time you need to spend handicapping each game. Just don’t make the mistake of thinking you can come up with a statistical model that covers everything.

The Basics

The basic things you need to start building an NFL statistical model are access to as many statistics as you can find, a computer, a spreadsheet program, and the ability to either develop a fairly simple computer program or the ability to create equations in your spreadsheet program.

I use Microsoft Excel, but any decent spreadsheet program will work. Once you learn a few simple rules, programming equations in a spreadsheet is fairly simple. I strongly recommend buying a book about your spreadsheet of choice, or watching some videos to learn how to make your spreadsheet do automatic calculations.

Once you learn how to use the spreadsheet to do what you want, it’s easy to test different variables. You can set up a different spreadsheet for testing new variables and copy the formulas you already have set up.

The great news about the stats you need to use is that you have access to more data than you can possibly handle. Instead of being forced to find newspapers with stats like the old timers had to do, you can find just about any NFL stat you can imagine online.

Here are a few places you can find statistics for your NFL betting model.

These are just a few. Once you start building your model, you’ll start figuring out the best sources for the exact information you need. As you find new sources, add them to a section on your spreadsheet so you don’t have to look for them every time you need something.

The other important thing you need is a system for backing up your spreadsheet on a regular basis. This might not seem important, and most people don’t back up things on their computer very often. But you’re going to invest a great deal of time and energy in your statistical model, and if you lose it because you don’t back it up it can be crushing.

One of the easiest ways to back up your spreadsheet is to email it to yourself at least once a week. It’s even better if you send it to yourself every day that you make a change to it. You can also use a flash drive that plugs into your USB port or use an external hard drive.

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Now that you know everything you need to get started, you need to understand some of the additional challenges you need to consider when developing an NFL statistical betting model.

Challenges

In the opening section I mentioned some of the things that a statistical model doesn’t do well. But these aren’t the only challenges you face.

The NFL season is only 16 games long, plus the playoffs. The preseason games aren’t very helpful in statistical modeling, so I usually ignore them other than for injury information. The statistics from the past season also aren’t extremely helpful, because the players on teams change, players get older, and coaching staffs change.

You can use back testing on your models using past seasons, and you should, but it’s dangerous to use results from the past season to predict upcoming games.

This means that the first week of games in the NFL season are difficult to handicap. I never try to handicap games the first four weeks of the NFL season using a statistical betting model. I still bet some games the first four weeks, but I use different handicapping methods on them.

If you don’t use your statistical model the first quarter of the season, it reduces the number of games you can bet on. On the other hand, when the playoffs come around you have an entire season worth of statistics to use in your model.

Another challenge is that sportsbooks also use models to help set lines. The kind of model I suggest you use is more advanced than what most sportsbooks use, but the way you make money is by finding lines that offer value. When the sportsbooks set lines that are accurate, you don’t make money betting.

The sportsbooks are better than ever at using all of the information they can get to set tight lines. This doesn’t mean that you can’t develop a profitable model, but it does mean that you’re going to have a hard time betting on too many games.

You need to use your model to identify a few games every week where the lines offer value. If you develop a statistical model that shows supposed value in more than three or four games in a week compared to the offered lines it doesn’t mean you suddenly have a great model. It means that you have a terrible model.

This might not make sense at first, but sportsbooks are profitable. They’re profitable because they set good lines. In any given week, most of the lines set by the sportsbooks are close to predicting the final score differential. This means that a good statistical model should come close to predicting the same final score differential on most games.

The place you find value is the sportsbooks are more interested in creating equal betting action on each side of a game than actually predicting the final scoring differential. The books might adjust a line predicted by their model a few points one way or another because they know the betting tendencies of the public.

These are the games where you can find betting value with a strong model. This is why your model is probably broken if it shows a potential profit on several lines in any given week.

You also need to develop a system to determine how much to bet on each game that shows a possible value. Most bettor start by making the same size wager on every game they bet, and I recommend this system. But as you refine your model you should start seeing more value in some lines than others.

The New York Giants are playing at the Dallas Cowboys. The line the sportsbook offers is the Cowboys favored at -8. Your statistical model shows that the Cowboys should win by 10. This is enough difference to bet on the game, but it’s still a fairly small difference.

If your statistical model shows that the Cowboys should win by 12, this is a much higher differential. If you’re confident in your model, you’ll bet more when the differential is four than you bet when it’s two.

The four point difference has a better chance of winning, as long as your model is accurate, than the two point difference.

It’s easy to think that since the difference is twice as much that you should bet twice as much. But the problem is that no matter how good your model is, it’s never going to be perfect. The difference of a point isn’t as valuable as you want to believe.

Here’s a Sample Betting Structure:

One thing you need to realize at this point is that you’re rarely going to find games with a difference of more than two or three points.

If you want to be more aggressive and can afford to take the risk, you can bet a higher multiple of your standard bet, but I don’t recommend being too aggressive until you’re 100% sure you have a good model.

An aggressive structure might be doubling your standard bet for every point over two in the difference between the line and your model prediction.

The last challenge you need to be aware of is that even if you build a great model you’re going to lose almost as many games as you win. You only need to win 53% of your bets against the spread to make a profit, and it’s very hard to win more than 55% of your games.

This means that you have to use and test your model for a long time before you know if it’s accurate or just lucky. This also means that if you have a string of poor results it doesn’t always mean that your model is bad. You might just be unlucky in the short term.

This is why you should be running more than one model at a time, and why you should keep running models for years, even if they don’t look like they work. Once you have a model set up, it can keep running with minimum upkeep, so there’s no reason to scrap a model that doesn’t seem to be working.

Keep all your models, and add new ones when you want to change something. Use the power of your computer. As you develop more models, take the best ones and combine them in another new model.

How to Build a Model

Now it’s time to start building your first model. It’s going to be fairly simple, and it’s not going to beat the sportsbooks. But it’s going to show you how to build a model so you can start building better and more complicated models.

In this model, you’re going to use the points scored and allowed for each team at home and on the road to predict the scores for an upcoming game.

• The New England Patriots average 24.7 points scored per game on the road, and give up an average of 17.3 points per game on the road.
• The Denver Broncos are averaging 22.5 points per game scored at home, and are giving up an average of 18.2 points per game at home.

To determine the predicted score for each team when the Patriots play at the Broncos, you average the points scored by each team with the points allowed by the opposing team.

• The Patriots score 24.7 points per game and the Broncos give up 18.2 points per game.
• This is an average of 21.45 points.
• Simply add 24.7 and 18.2, and then divide by two.

The Patriots are predicted to score 21.45 points in the game using this model. Round 21.45 off, and you get 21 points.

• The Broncos score 22.5 points per game and the Patriots give up 17.3.
• This is an average of 19.9 points.
• When you round this, you predict the Broncos are going to score 20 points.

To determine if you should make a bet on the game, you compare your predicted final score against the available line.

You look at the line and see that the Broncos are favored by one. If your model is accurate, it means that you should bet on the Patriots and take the point.

This model is weak, because it only factors in two variables. It’s also so simple that a high school freshman could come up with it without any help. I’m not picking on high school freshman, because I was one myself many years ago. But if a freshman could develop your system without any help your system is probably too weak to beat the sportsbooks.

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Your statistical model is going to work on the same basic theory of this model, but it’s going to use many more variables. You still want your model to predict final scores, but you want to use the right mix of variables to make it as accurate as possible.

Why You Can’t Buy a Winning Model

So why can’t I just give you a winning model? Why can’t you buy a winning model?

Every winning statistical model is unique. It has to be unique, because if too many people use the same model it tends to become unprofitable. Sportsbooks adjust based on their profit, so even if they don’t know your exact model, they can still make adjustments to counter it.

People want a quick fix. They throw money at problems because it’s often the easiest way to solve them. But you can’t throw money at a sports betting system or model and turn it into a profit. If you have money to invest in developing an NFL betting model, consider hiring a programmer and/or a mathematician to help you work on your models.

Statistics

Here’s a list of statistics to consider using for your models. This is far from a complete list, but it gives you a place to start. You might not use all of the statistics below, but as you read through the list you need to start thinking about which ones you want to use and other stats that you might want to find and use that aren’t on the list.

Team Statistics

• Points scored per game at home
• Points scored per game on the road
• Points allowed per game at home
• Points allowed per game on the road
• Yards gained at home
• Yards gained on the road
• Yards allowed at home
• Yards allowed on the road
• Yards per point scored at home
• Yards per point scored on the road
• Yards per point allowed at home
• Yards per point allowed at home
• Yards per play on offense at home
• Yards per play on offense on the road
• Yards allowed per play at home
• Yards allowed per play on the road
• Sacks allowed per play at home
• Sacks allowed per play on the road
• Sacks per play by defense at home
• Sacks per play by defense on the road
• Interceptions thrown per play at home
• Interceptions thrown per play on the road
• Interceptions per play by defense at home
• Interceptions per play by defense on the road
• Ratio of pass to run plays at home
• Ratio of pass to run plays on the road
• Average yards per pass at home
• Average yards per pass on the road
• Average yards per run at home
• Average yards per run on the road

This list might seem daunting, but it’s not even close to a complete list of what you should consider using. You also need to figure out how to make adjustments based on the strengths and weaknesses of each team.

What happens when a great run defense faces a great run offense? What happens when a terrible pass defense faces a great pass offense, and how big is the advantage?

It’s easy to understand that a great passing team facing a poor pass defense is going to score a lot of points. But the key is figuring out how many more.

The good news is you can use a statistical model to develop an idea of exactly how much each thing is worth. The more data you collect and analyze, the better you can make your model.

Player Statistics

It’s easier to build a statistical NFL model when you just use the team statistics, like the ones in the last section. But if you want to make the best model you can, you need to learn how to incorporate individual statistics into your model.

This is the most valuable when you try to adjust your team based model when players miss games. One way to do this is build a model that compares the replacement value for key positions from past data. Each player and position has a slightly different value, so this isn’t an exact science.

Nfl Betting Reddit Against

One team has a backup running back that plays quite a bit and has a track record of success.

• If the number one running back misses a game, the backup can replace him with a 90% replacement value.

Another team has a backup running back that doesn’t play much and is clearly a step down from the starter.

• This backup might only be able to provide 50% of the value of the starter.
• He might provide such a low replacement value that the coaches use an entirely different game plan.

Some teams do a better job of interchanging players than others. This is something you need to know as well.

The good news about injuries is the sportsbooks don’t really know any more than you do about replacement value. This means that you have a chance to find value if you can build an accurate replacement value model for the NFL.

Conclusion

Building a successful NFL statistical model is like solving a giant math problem. It’s not easy, but it can be solved if you know enough and put in enough effort. Start with a simple model and add new statistics and variables one at a time. Build a new model with each change so you can track exactly what each change does to the effectiveness of the model.