1. Sports Bet Boxing
2. Sports Bet Nfl Mvp

The NFL consensus is the number of wagers being placed at a sportsbook on one NFL team or its opponent (or the OVER, or the UNDER). Often referred to as betting percentages, these numbers give you an idea of what’s going on at the sportsbook. You can then use this information to shape your NFL picks. We know that you can bet on the Super Bowl and all of NFL Futures or bet on the NFL Draft at any time of the year, but what’s the process? The future wager or the “Odds to Win” bet on the Super.

Knowing the NFL and winning money betting on the NFL are two completely different things. And one of the biggest mistakes that average bettors make is to think that just because they follow pro football religiously that they will be successful betting on it.

Sports betting is a unique beast. Reading and understanding the market, interpreting secondary betting factors that influence each game, and knowing how to manage a bankroll are all things that are most public bettors don’t fully grasp. But those fundamentals are the foundation of the sports betting industry and are critical to success whether you’re betting $10 per game or $1,000 per game.

Professional handicappers like myself have a thousand tips and tricks to beat the NFL betting market. But here are some pretty basic ones that all NFL bettors should understand:

1. You Need Proper Money Management

Money management is the key to successful sports betting, regardless of sport. We use a standard 1-8 Unit System at Doc’s Sports, with each “unit” representing a specific percent of your bankroll. Your average bet should be around three or four percent of your stack. There will be exceptions and plays you like more than others. But even in those games, you shouldn’t commit more than seven or eight percent on any situation throughout the season.

If you have $2,000 in your account, you should be betting around $40 per game. I know it’s not as sexy as betting $200 or $300 per game. But that type of recklessness is for amateurs and tourists. Play within your means and you’ll stay in the game a lot longer. And if you do that, then you can eventually turn that $2,000 into $4,000, $5,000 or $10,000. Then you can be the high roller you always wanted to be! By betting around 2% of your bankroll per game, then you bet more when you are winning and less when you are losing.

2. Learn To Read The Lines

The sportsbooks aren’t trying to predict outcomes. They just want to post a spread that results in equal betting on each side (known as balanced action). To be a successful bettor, you should be a good oddsmaker. And that all starts with knowing how and why spreads are posted and why they move in the manner in which they do.

A fundamental NFL betting concept is that of “key numbers”. Spreads of 3.0, 4.0 and 7.0 are considered “key” because three, four or seven points decide an inordinate amount of games. As a result, sharp bettors understand the value difference between placing a bet on an underdog at 3.5 rather than 3.0 and getting a favorite at 6.5 rather than 7.0.

It is also important to be able to read line movements. Let’s say that more than 80 percent of the bets on a game are on the favorite. But instead of climbing, the spread actually falls away from the side the public is on. That’s called a reverse line movement and is an indicator that the professional bettors are on the opposite side of the square public. Also, it is telling when the books move the spread off a key number, and that can be a sure sign of professional or “sharp” money is coming in on a team.

The oddsmakers are a lot better at this than you are. You have to respect that. If a line looks too good to be true, there is probably a very good reason for it. Try to think like an oddsmaker and bet with the books.

3. Understand The Up-Down Theory

The public overreacts to everything that happens in the sports world. Media outlets like ESPN have built their empires stirring up the frenzy surrounding these games, and everything that happened five minutes ago is The Most Important Thing in the World. Nowhere is this truer than the NFL, where teams play just once a week. That leaves a lot of time for hand wringing and carnival barking about which teams are great and terrible based solely on the most recent game.

The Up-Down Theory suggests that teams that played poorly one week should be due for a regression the next, while a team that played above itself will come back down to earth. However, the market usually corrects the other way, assuming that a team that played poorly is a “bad team” and will be equally bad or even worse the next week, while a team that won will continue to play well or improve. When a team coming off a statistically anomalous “bad” game goes up against a team that played over its head the week prior, then you have a classic Up-Down situation.

For example, in Week 1 of the 2013 regular season, Philadelphia blitzed Washington in a marquee road win. That same night San Diego played horribly in the second half while collapsing in a loss to Houston. The two teams played the following Sunday. And a spread that probably should’ve been 3.5 was inflated up to 7.5 because the assumption was that Philadelphia was trending up and San Diego was trending down. It was just the opposite. The Chargers bounced back (Up) while the Eagles slid back to reality (Down), and the result was an outright upset win for San Diego.

4. Situational and Motivational Factors Can’t Be Ignored.

The difference between the fifth-best team and the 20th-best team in the NFL is razor thin. So motivational and situational factors can play a huge factor in how games will develop. If Team A is on the road after a physical, emotionally draining rivalry win at home, then they are in a prime letdown spot. If another squad is a West Coast team flying across country for the second straight week for a 1 p.m. EST start, then you have to figure they will be at a severe situational disadvantage against their opponent. Things like that have to be considered when making any wager in the NFL.

Betting on a team coming off a bye week because they had “extra time to prepare” is actually one of the most overrated factors in NFL betting. But betting against a team that might be looking ahead to a more important game the following week – a Look Ahead Situation – is often underappreciated by the general betting public.

Also, momentum is a crucial aspect to any NFL season. Teams can get hot or go cold at any point. And, especially late in the season, these streaks can lead to teams playing above themselves on the field and at the window. Never bet against a streak. You are better off either jumping on the gravy train or staying off the tracks.

5. Pay More Attention To The Trenches

I will admit that the first thing bettors need to consider when putting money down on a team is the coach and quarterback matchups. But I also feel like too much focus is put on skill position players in NFL betting. At its core, pro football is a physical, violent game. And the team that can physically impose its will and dominate its opponent at the point of attack has a huge advantage.

You have to pay attention to how teams are set along the offensive and defensive lines. So many other aspects of the game are a direct result of how teams fare in the trenches.

Teams with poor offensive lines are more prone to sacks, turnovers and penalties, three things that can kill a good bet. Teams will strong offensive lines are better at running the ball and protecting leads. And how offensive lines match up with their defensive counterparts goes a long way to determining how a game will be played.

Fundamental handicapping is the approach that looks at basic matchup aspects of teams. If one team has a great passing game and they are facing a terrible secondary, then that is a fundamental advantage. In my opinion, the fundamental offensive/defensive line matchup is one of most important and undervalued aspects of NFL handicapping. Pay attention to it. And when you find an underdog with major advantages in the trenches, that is a bet you want to make.

6. Beware The Shaky Road Favorite

Road favorites are rarely a strong play for NFL bettors. But there are some teams that simply should never be favored when they play away from home. You never want to lay points on the road with teams that have a track record of wild inconsistency – turnovers, penalties, late-game meltdown, poor special teams, etc. These teams are usually enticing because of perceived “talent” advantages. But if they aren’t consistent and fundamentally sound, you don’t even want to think about betting on them away from home.

The Detroit Lions, a perpetually overhyped team with a history of maddeningly inconsistent play, are a perfect example. They are a lower-tier NFL team. But they can be posted as favorites when they play other lower-tier teams like the Raiders, Browns or Cardinals. Stay away. Bad teams are usually never good bets when laying points. That is doubly true when those shaky teams play on the road.

7. Know Which Numbers Really Matter

Points-per-game average is not as strong of an indicator of team performance as yards per point. Third-down conversion rate is a more consistent indicator of a team’s offensive performance than yards per rush. Understanding which statistics are loaded with meaning (turnovers) and which ones are overvalued (total yards) is a key to becoming a sharp NFL bettor.

The average yards per point for the median NFL team is right around 15.5. So if a team plays a game in which they had a YPP of 24.0, then you can deduce that your team scored a lot less than they should have, and this could lead to a higher-scoring game the following week. And vice versa.

Further, statistics like total yardage differential (yards gained minus yards allowed), strength of schedule, and point differential are actually better indicators of team strength than win-loss record. Paying attention to those numbers can help you find overrated and underrated teams throughout the season.

Robert Ferringo has been the top football handicapper in the country the past nine years, earning nearly $40,000 in total football profit (average profit: +$4,400). He has also posted 8 of 10 winning seasons (including four straight winning years) and produced an amazing 53 of 82 winning football months over the past 13 years. Robert is looking for a fifth straight winning football year and wants more profit this fall. SIGN UP HERE TODAY AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF OUR 3-FOR-1 FOOTBALL SPECIALS!

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NFL POINT SPREADS EXPLAINED:

The NFL is the most wagered upon sport in North America and it's not even close. I will spare you the grand introduction and lead you right into the mean and potatoes of this article. If you are a novice bettor who is just learning how to bet on the NFL, keep reading. If you understand the common concepts like money line, spread and totals wagering, you can skip down to the advanced wagering options by clicking here. If you want to know how to lay a few bets down on the futures market, I suggest you click here.

Betting on the NFL Money Line

As a concept, this is the simplest wager you can make on any game in any sport (except soccer). The money line betting option allows you to place a bet on the team you think is simply going to win the game. In the NFL, this bet includes overtime, but there have been a few instances where the game finishes tied at the end of OT and both sides get their money refunded.

Example:

Chicago Bears: +150 ML
Minnesota Vikings: -200 ML

The money line betting odds correlate to the listed point spread. In this example, the Vikings are the favorites and you must wager $200 dollars to turn a profit of $100. If you are a homer or love betting on the underdog, the Bears will return you $150 for every $100 you wager on them if they pull off the upset. If the game happens to end in a tie, bettors with money line tickets on either side will be refunded.

Betting on the Point Spread

Regardless of if I am talking about the NFL, CFL, NCAA, Arena League or upcoming XFL, the point spread is the most popular wagering option for bettors who love to test football betting skills. The point spread is an indication of which team is the favorite and underdog heading into their matchup.

A negative betting line such as -2.5 indicates that the team is expected to not only win the game outright, but win by three or more points. On the flip side, positive betting lines such as +2.5 indicate a team's underdog status. Not only is the underdog expected to lose, but they are expected to lose by at least a field goal

When looking over betting options for the NFL, you will come across lines that look like the following:

Chicago Bears +2.5 (-110)
Minnesota Vikings: -2.5 (-110)

Depending on which side you select, your team must 'cover the spread' in order for your wager to be graded a winner.

If you choose to take Chicago +2.5, you will be a winner if either of these three scenarios play out. The first being Chicago wins the game outright by any score. The second being Chicago loses by two or fewer points, thus 'covering' the +2.5-spread. And the third being if the game finishes as a tie.

If you decided to wager on the Vikings as -2.5-point favorites, they must win by three or more points in order for wager to be graded as a winner.

One thing to keep in mind when betting on the point spread is that the point spread moves up or down depending on how much action a certain side is receiving. If you are able to lock in your bet at -2.5 and the line goes down to -1.5, your ticket would only be a winner if your team won by three or more points. If they won by two, they would have beat the closing spread of -1.5, but your odds are locked in from the time your ticket is printed or you click place bet.

Betting Game Totals

Despite being classified as the same sport, the NFL and CFL couldn't be more different. The NFL is played on a much smaller field and gives teams three downs to make a first down before electing to punt. The NFL is generally a much lower scoring league than the CFL, but that doesn't mean that betting 'unders' are the way to turn a profit in the NFL.

When looking at betting an NFL total, there should be three things you take into consideration. The first being the weather. The second is both team's offensive and defensive numbers. And the last thing is the intangibles such as is it a short week, does a team have injury problems, travel delays, etc.

Let's look at an example of a game total:

Chicago Bears/Minnesota Vikings – 'Over' 38.5 -110, 'Under' 38.5 -110

If you are to bet the 'over' 38.5, there must be a total of 39 points or more scored in the game in order for you to be a winner. If there are 38 or fewer points scored, then those who bet on the 'under' will cash their tickets.

If totals are whole numbers such as 38 or 40 and the total happens to land exactly on the number, your bet, regardless whether it's an 'over' or 'under' bet, will be graded as a push and your money will be returned to you.

Advanced NFL Wagering Options

The NFL is the most popular sport in North America to wager on. It draws in the most money among the four major sports and there should be no surprises why. Sportsbooks offer up an endless amount of wagering option to go along with the most common three wagering options; money line, spread, total. Here are some of the popular options.

Team totals

This works almost exactly like the game total, but revolves around one team instead of both. With the 'team total' wagering option, you are essentially betting on whether you think Team X will score more or less than the line given out by the sportsbooks.

Example:

Chicago Bears Team Total: 'Over' 16.5 -110, 'Under' 16.5 -110.

In this case you have two options. You can bet them to score 17 or more points or 16 or fewer. The decision is ultimately up to you. This bet also includes overtime, unless otherwise stated in the betting rules provided by your sportsbook of choice.

First Half Spread

The 'first half spread' betting option is a trickier form of betting the full-game point spread. This option takes into account the score at half time in order to determine a winner. The first half spread is usually half of what the full game spread is.

Example:

Chicago Bears +1.5 1H
Minnesota Vikings -1.5 1H

Depending on what side you are on, the score going into half time is what is used to determine a winner. If the score is 17-14 in favor of the Vikings, bettors holding a Minnesota -1.5 1H ticket are winners since they were able to cover the -1.5- first-half spread.

As I mentioned above, the first half point spread is typically half of what the full game line is.

Player Props

Betting on NFL player props is a tricky situation since not all football games go according to plan. If you believe Quarterback X will complete more than 22.5 passes, but his defense scores twice and they are blowing out a team, the chances of him reaching 23 completions is very low. He will just simply hand the ball off and run out the clock.

If you think a running back has a distinct advantage of going up against a poor run defense, you may take that running back to go over the posted rushing yards line. However, if the team with the poor defense gets a sizeable lead, you can almost forget about it. That team will go into throwing mode and the running back will be the one to suffer.

Examples:

Tom Brady: 'Over' 22.5 completions -110, 'Under' 22.5 completions -110
Jay Ajayi: 'Over' 74.5 rushing yards -110, 'Under' 74.5 rushing yards -110
Antonio Brown: 'Over' 4.5 receptions -110, 'Under' 4.5 receptions -110

For each of these three player prop options, each player must go 'over' or 'under' the posted line. If you think Brady will complete at least 23 passes, you would take the 'over'. If you think Brown will be held to four or fewer catches, you would bet the 'under'.

First Touchdown Scorer/Anytime Touchdown Scorer

This proposition is the most popular when Super Bowl rolls around. For one reason or another, people always make a big deal about who is going to score the first touchdown in the Super Bowl. I get that the first touchdown is important, but rarely does a game end with only one touchdown scored.

If you wager on the First Touchdown Scorer prop your goal is to (obviously) pick the player who will score the first touchdown.

First Touchdown Scorer Example:

Rob Gronkowski +400
Danny Amendola +500
Brandin Cooks +650
Jay Ajayi +750
Alshon Jeffery +1200
Nick Foles +3300
Tom Brady +4400

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Example:
Rob Gronkowski -150
Danny Amendola +120
Brandin Cooks ++300
Jay Ajayi +350
Alshon Jeffery +400
Nick Foles +2500
Tom Brady +3000

As you can see, the 'any time touchdown scorer' odds drop drastically compared to the first touchdown scorer. But with this prop, your player can score a touchdown in any quarter, including overtime in order for you to cash your ticket.

Futures Bets

A futures bet is a wager placed in the time leading up to the start of the event on a team or player that you believe is going to win their respective competition. Heading into the 2018 NFL season, the Super Bowl futures odds look like this:

Super Bowl LIII Champion: New England +500, Philadelphia +750, Green Bay +1200, Minnesota +1200, Pittsburgh +1400, San Francisco +1600, Los Angeles +1800, New Orleans +1800, Jacksonville +2000 etc.

In order for you to successfully cash your ticket, you must correctly choose the team that will hoist the Lombardi trophy at the conclusion of Super Bowl LIII.

Team Win Totals

This is another popular type of futures bet amongst pro handicappers. The concept is straight forward. Every sportsbook will put out a 'win total' for every team long before the season begins. Handicappers must simply decide whether they believe that team will exceed the posted win total or fall short of it.

Example:

Sports Bet Boxing

Pittsburgh Steelers Win Total: 'Over' 11.5 wins -110, 'Under' 11.5 wins -110

If the Steelers go 12-4 or better, the 'over' would cash. If they go 11-5 or worse, the 'under' would cash.

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